Israel’s Election Enters The Crucial Stretch: The Paths To 61

With Israel’s October 27 election less than two months away, the political map is beginning to take shape, but the path to the Prime Minister’s Office remains anything but clear.

Gadi Eisenkot has established himself as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s principal challenger. Netanyahu’s traditional partners remain considerably more cohesive than the parties seeking to replace him, but current polling leaves his bloc well short of the 61 seats needed to govern. New parties, parties hovering around the electoral threshold, and an unusual new partnership involving Ra’am have further complicated the picture.

A new Channel 12 poll released Monday night gives Eisenkot’s Yashar 24 seats and Likud 23. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid’s Together receives 15, the Democrats 11 and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu nine. On Netanyahu’s side, Otzma Yehudit receives eight, UTJ eight and Shas seven. Ofer Winter’s new Amcha Yisrael receives four seats, while Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism falls below the electoral threshold.

The numbers leave the Zionist opposition with 59 seats, Netanyahu’s current partners together with Winter at 50, and the Arab parties holding the remaining 11.

No one has 61.

For Eisenkot, the simplest route is now within striking distance. Just two additional mandates would allow the Zionist opposition to form a government without Shas, UTJ or an Arab party.

Other recent surveys have generally placed this group in the mid-to-high 50s. Eisenkot does not need a dramatic shift in the electorate. A relatively small movement could give him the majority he needs.

Netanyahu faces a more difficult calculation.

Former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter launched his Amcha Yisrael party last week and immediately began polling around four to six seats. Winter has said that he would recommend Netanyahu for prime minister, which would appear to strengthen the right.

It has not necessarily worked out that way.

Winter is competing for many of the same voters as Likud, Smotrich and Ben Gvir. In several surveys, Winter crosses the threshold while Smotrich does not. Netanyahu can therefore gain four or five Winter seats while simultaneously losing the potential mandates of Religious Zionism.

The newest Channel 12 poll illustrates the problem. Winter receives four seats, Smotrich fails to enter the Knesset, and Netanyahu’s enlarged camp remains at only 50.

Netanyahu has consequently been pressing Smotrich and Ben Gvir to reunite. Ben Gvir has thus far refused, while Smotrich has been discussing a possible joint run with former Likud MK Moshe Feiglin and his Zehut party.

The difference between Smotrich receiving 3.2 percent and clearing the 3.25 percent threshold could amount to several Knesset seats.

Netanyahu’s concern, therefore, is not simply where right-wing voters go. It is whether their votes ultimately translate into seats.

Monday evening brought another significant development.

Former Yesh Atid MK and senior police commander Yoav Segalovitz announced that he will run together with Mansour Abbas’s Ra’am. Segalovitz, who is Jewish and identifies as a Zionist, will take the second position on the slate.

The arrangement is being described as a technical partnership rather than Segalovitz formally joining Ra’am. He is expected to retain political independence, while Ra’am will maintain its existing party structure. Segalovitz has said that one of his priorities will be expanding national service among Arab Israelis.

For Abbas, the arrangement is an effort to demonstrate that Jewish-Arab political cooperation remains possible and that Ra’am can again play a role in forming a government.

The latest Channel 12 poll, conducted before the Segalovitz announcement, gives Ra’am four seats. That timing could prove important. If Eisenkot finishes with 57 to 60 Zionist MKs, Ra’am could suddenly find itself holding the votes that determine who forms the next government.

Such an arrangement would hardly be simple. Bennett and Lieberman have expressed serious reservations about a government dependent upon Arab parties, and Netanyahu would almost certainly make that possibility a major campaign issue.

Nevertheless, the numbers cannot be ignored.

For weeks, there has also been speculation about whether Shas might abandon Netanyahu after the election, particularly following sharp criticism of Netanyahu from former Sephardic Chief Rabbi Rav Yitzchak Yosef and his surprisingly favorable comments about Eisenkot.

The political leadership of Shas has given little indication that such a change is underway.

Shas faction chairman Yinon Azoulay said last week that the party remains in the right-wing bloc headed by Netanyahu and rejected cooperation with Eisenkot. That followed Aryeh Deri’s own declaration of support for Netanyahu.

Shas and UTJ unquestionably have serious grievances over the unresolved status of yeshivah students and the draft. Those grievances could give the Charedi parties considerable leverage following the election.

That is very different from deciding to change sides.

An Eisenkot-Shas coalition should therefore be viewed as a possible post-election development if neither bloc can form a government, rather than something Shas is presently preparing to do.

The approaching deadline for candidate lists could prove almost as consequential as the movement of the major parties.

Several parties remain close to or below the 3.25 percent threshold. Smotrich faces genuine danger. Smaller center-right efforts involving figures including Benny Gantz, Gilad Erdan, Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel have also struggled in polling, prompting continuing discussion of consolidation.

The threshold can be unforgiving. A party can receive tens of thousands of votes and come within a fraction of a percentage point of qualifying for the Knesset. If it falls short, none of those votes produces representation.

The next government could therefore be determined not by whether Yashar or Likud gains another seat, but by which smaller parties survive.

There are now several plausible routes to 61.

The cleanest path for Eisenkot is reaching 61 with Zionist parties alone. Channel 12 currently puts that group at 59. A small shift toward Yashar, Together, Lieberman or the Democrats could be enough.

If Eisenkot stops at 57 to 60, Ra’am becomes one possible route. The new Segalovitz partnership may make cooperation somewhat easier to present politically, although Bennett and Lieberman remain significant obstacles.

Shas offers another theoretical route. A Zionist opposition in the upper 50s combined with Shas would have a comfortable majority. There is currently no indication that Deri intends to pursue this, and disagreements over the draft would make negotiations difficult.

Netanyahu could still recover enough support to rebuild his traditional coalition. Before doing so, however, he must prevent right-wing votes from being lost through parties failing to cross the threshold.

If Netanyahu reaches the mid-50s, he could also try to attract a center-right faction after Election Day by arguing that a broad Zionist government is preferable to one dependent upon Ra’am.

There is also the possibility that neither man finds 61. That could produce lengthy negotiations, attempts at a broad unity government or another election. Netanyahu would remain prime minister of the caretaker government until a new government is sworn in.

At the moment, Eisenkot has the better numbers.

Yashar is generally running even with or ahead of Likud, while the parties seeking to replace Netanyahu are considerably closer to 61 than Netanyahu’s existing bloc.

Netanyahu nevertheless retains an important advantage: his natural partners are easier to identify.

Eisenkot must keep Bennett and Lapid, Lieberman and the Democrats together and may ultimately need an agreement with another party. Netanyahu begins with Likud, Shas, UTJ, Ben Gvir and Smotrich broadly preferring his return, with Winter now saying that he too would recommend Netanyahu.

That is why Netanyahu remains very much in the race despite the unfavorable arithmetic.

For Eisenkot, the question is whether 57 to 59 seats can become 61.

For Netanyahu, the challenge is considerably greater: rebuilding a bloc currently hovering around 50 while making sure that right-wing votes are not lost below the threshold.

Over the coming days, some of the smaller parties will have to decide whether to merge, withdraw or take their chances on Election Day.

Those decisions may determine whether Israel’s next government is decided by a broad shift among voters—or by a few tenths of a percentage point at the electoral threshold.

By Shabsie Saphirstein