How Lucky Can You Get?

Computers choose winning lottery numbers randomly each day.  And each day players carefully check those numbers against the ones on their tickets.  If all match, the ticket could be worth a great deal of money, sometimes many millions of dollars.  On the other hand, a losing ticket means the player is out a few dollars.  Do those computers really pick the winning numbers randomly? 

This question was raised very recently following an investigation by the Des Moines Register.  The Register found that in dozens of lottery games identical winning numbers were selected within months of each other, within a few weeks of each other, and even in consecutive drawings.  

Lottery officials argue that the repeat winning numbers are nothing more than chance.  Those repeats "are rare and uncommon," and  there is "no reason to suspect these numbers were not drawn reasonably," said Patricia Mayers, a spokeswoman for the Wisconsin Lottery, which had several identical series of numbers drawn over more than a decade.

But others have a different opinion.  According to the website lotterypost.com, critics of random-number drawings contend that the identical draws, combined with problems in several states with "random number" computer generators, "demonstrate that the fairness and integrity of the nation's $80.5 billion annual lottery system are compromised."  Those critics add that the problems are aggravated by the lack of national oversight into them.  

Harsh View

"Lottery directors and state legislators are running these rigged games with blinders on," said Les Bernal, Director of Stop Predatory Gambling, based in Washington, D.C. "They're shielding their eyes from the dishonesty of these games."

Math experts, who understand the laws of probability, have researched lottery drawings and they told the Register that it's difficult to be certain whether the same number draws indicate a serious problem without an in-depth inspection of the lottery software.  However, they add that those draws deserve a closer look.

"It's worthy of investigation," said math professor David Austin, of Grand Valley State University in Michigan.  

Already several states, including Iowa, Arizona, Connecticut and South Carolina, have identified problems with random number-generated lotteries, and some have ended games because of those. .

Problems With Numbers

Using data of winning drawings in 37 states collected by Lottery Post, the Register discovered more than 100 drawings over the past 25 years where the same winning numbers were picked in the same game within 365 days of each other.  (Only lottery games that select at least five numbers were researched  because those games generally have a lower probability of having the same numbers drawn twice.)

In eight instances, the same winning numbers were generated in consecutive drawings in the same game.

After running more than 10,000 simulations as part of a review, Austin, the Grand Valley State math professor, reviewed some of the same-number draws the Register identified as possible anomalies in Wisconsin and West Virginia.  "Convention would say that the Wisconsin Lottery results are statistically significant and even close to being highly significant," he said.

Robert Molzon, a retired math professor at the University of Kentucky, reviewed sets of lottery numbers that won multiple times in Wisconsin and West Virginia over a multiyear period.  "My conclusion is that it is highly unlikely that the chosen numbers in either of these lotteries are truly random," Molzon said.

It Takes One...

The significance of repeat winning numbers may be subject to opinion, but at least one lottery-related incident was clearly illegal.  Eddie Tipton, a former Multi-State Lottery Association security worker, admitted masterminding the largest lottery fraud in U.S. history.

Tipton — in a confession following his 2017 conviction — told investigators that in 2006 he had warned his employer that computer software he had written to randomly draw numbers had an alarming flaw: The numbers being selected weren't truly random. 

This problem became clear after two Wisconsin SuperCash! games drew the same six winning numbers twice -- within a 10 day time frame.  The odds of this happening is 1 in 326,262, the same as flipping a coin and having it come up heads 18 times in a row. 

For whatever reason, neither the Multi-State Lottery nor the Wisconsin Lottery notified the public of the reported flaw, neither did they have any reports showing investigations were conducted into the matter.  Also for reasons unexplained, the Multi-State Lottery did not correct the random-number-generating software, which ultimately was used by at least 17 states.

"You have to ask, 'Who do Multi State Lotteries answer to?'" the attorney for one player asked.  "It's not regulated by a federal agency or any single state. It just sort of exists in a patchwork of state laws."

Steve Bogle, Iowa Lottery's vice president in 2015, recommended the state suspend four popular games because of serious flaws with the software that randomly generated the winning numbers. 

The Iowa Lottery no longer uses Multi-State Lottery computer software to draw game numbers.  By the way, the Multi-State Lottery Association is the subject of multiple lawsuits from players who contend they were bilked out of winnings. 

Problems Discovered

At least three state lotteries have acknowledged random-draw malfunctions, and assured the public that they have taken steps to fix those problems.

In 2017 Arizona identified more than a dozen draws in four separate lottery games where they suspected computer software had malfunctioned and chose duplicate numbers, including in consecutive draws.

In 2018 Connecticut suspended two employees after it was discovered that a computer used to randomly select winners had been erroneously programmed. 

Also in 2018 South Carolina declined to pay more than $35 million in wins when a computer error printed thousands of winning tickets. 

The Best Policy

There is no reason to think that states intentionally manipulate winning numbers, if for no other reason than they have a very good thing going with lotteries and would be crazy to upset the apple cart.

Lotteries across the country employ tens of thousands of people; and in New York State alone there are certainly thousands, possibly tens of thousands of vendors who profit from these games, as they earn several cents for each dollar in lottery tickets they sell. .

CNN reports that in 2017 states across the country took in more than $80.5 billion from lotteries, a hefty sum by anyone's standards.  Just under two-thirds of that went toward paying prizes. Of the rest, $16.7 billion went for education.  Another $2.5 billion went to states' general funds, while another $1.3 billion was allocated for social programs for the homeless, the elderly and drug and alcohol treatment.  States love lotteries as they serve as a "voluntary tax," generating revenues but no complaints.  Without those revenues, many education and social programs either would have to be eliminated, cut, or taxes raised substantially to keep them funded.

So even though repeat winning numbers have been chosen numerous times in many lotteries, there is no reason to suspect something "not kosher" is afoot.  However, if this continues to occur, or if any other unusual activities are reported, chances are a lot of players will be walking around with raised eyebrows.

sources:cnn.com; lotterypost.com; usatoday.com.

 By Gerald Harris